At What Time and On What Channel is the Oct 15 presidential debate?

13 October 2008

In case you were wondering about when the next presidential debate is taking place and on what television channels it is showing:

The October 15th presidential debate between Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain on the Hofstra University campus in Long Island, New York, is scheduled to take place at 8 pm Central Time (9 pm Eastern Time, 7 pm Mountain Time, 6 pm Pacific Time).

The presidential debate will be held in a standard debate format and will last 90 minutes. The debate will be broken into nine, nine-minute segments. The moderator will introduce a topic and allow each candidate two minutes to comment. After these initial answers, the moderator will facilitate an open discussion of the topic for the remaining five minutes, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment.

The debate moderator will be Bob Schieffer of CBS, and the topic will be domestic and economic policy. The debate will be aired on television channels ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, PBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and BBC America.

This is the final debate and may be John McCain’s last big chance to change the momentum of the election in his favor. Voters so far have perceived Barack Obama as the more informed candidate when it comes to economic policy. Watch for lots of numbers being thrown around and some aggressive debating.


Presidential Poll Quickie: Oct. 9, 2008

9 October 2008

I have an irrational love of numbers. The only numbers people interested in politics get to obsess over without reservations are polls. So here’s a brief summary of the latest national presidential election polls and polls in states that John McCain and Barack Obama appear to think are in play.

Although the October 7, 2008 presidential debate between Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was widely seen as essentially a draw — which would benefit the front runner, Obama, but not affect climbs or falls in the numbers — there has been some movement in the polls since that debate.

National polls have seen McCain slowly and so far not significantly gaining on Obama. While a Gallup poll still has Obama leading by 11 percentage points with 52% over McCain’s 41%, a Rasmussen poll has Obama at 50% over McCain’s 45%, a Hotline/FD poll has Obama at 47% over McCain’s 41%, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll has Obama at 48% to McCain’s 44%, and a GW/Battleground poll has Obama at 48% to McCain’s 45%. Obama’s numbers are generally down two or three percentage points from polls earlier this week, but they are outside the statistical margin of error.

In projections for the electoral college that average-in trends over several different recent polls, Obama is now projected to win 349 electoral votes over McCain’s 174, with North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes considered a toss-up. A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win the presidential election.

The battleground states of the moment are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina, which add up to a total of 98 electoral votes — enough to nearly swing the election one way or the other, although McCain would have to pick up all these states and 9 more electoral votes from elsewhere to win, since Indiana’s 11 electoral votes are currently credited to his 174. If McCain manages to hold on to all his current electoral votes, he would be most likely to pick those remaining 9 votes up in Michigan, New Mexico, or Virginia, which all currently poll for Obama at an average of 6% each.

Here are the developments in those battlground states:

Colorado (9 electoral votes) had been called a tie by the Denver Post earlier last week, with projections that it might return to its old habit of leaning GOP after generally favoring Obama following the Democratic National Convention in Denver. A recent Fox News/Rasmussen poll and an InAdv/Poll Position poll, however, have both put the mood there at 51% Obama over McCain’s 45%.

Florida (27 electoral votes) has been leaning slightly Obama recently, but the state is certainly still very much contested. The Republican-leaning Florida Chamber of Commerce has polled McCain at 45% to Obama’s 42%.  A non-partisan Mason/Dixon poll has Obama at 48% to McCain’s 46%, and a Rasmussen poll has Obama at 50% to McCain’s 47%.

Indiana (11 electoral votes) was called a tie by a Research 2000 poll earlier last week, but a more recent CNN/Time poll has McCain leading Obama 51% to 46%, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll has McCain even farther ahead, at 50% to Obama’s 43%.

Ohio (20 electoral votes) remains hotly contested, although it is currently leaning slightly towards Obama, who has lost a few percentage points in that crucial swing state. Earlier in the week, an ABC News/Washington Post poll and a poll by the Democratic-leaning PPP had both predicted Obama 6% ahead, at 51% to McCain’s 45% and 49% to McCain’s 43% respectively. Then, a later Fox News/Rasmussen poll had predicted McCain taking the lead at 48% to Obama’s 47%, only to have the most current polls by CNN/Time and ARG once again put Obama in the lead at 50% to 47% and 48% to 45% respectively. A three percent lead is close to the margin of error, so Ohio is essentially undecided.

Michigan (17 electoral votes) recently saw McCain pull his ad funding as the state seemed to slip further and further into the Obama camp, but Michigan will remain one of the states that McCain will have to pursue if he wants to retain a chance of winning. The numbers, however, are not at all good for McCain. The Democratic-leaning PPP’s recent poll has predicted a 51% to 41% lead for Obama, and, more significantly, the conservative-leaning Rasmussen has Obama ahead 56% to McCain’s 50%. This follows a tie two weeks ago.

Missouri (11 electoral votes) had Obama take the lead polls earlier in the week by CNN/Time (49% to McCain’s 48%) and by Fox News/Rasmussen (50% to McCain’s 47%), but the most recent poll by ARG puts McCain ahead once again at 49% to Obama’s 46%. Missouri may be the state currently credited to Obama’s electoral votes by long-term tendency that McCain needs to secure in order to have a chance to win.

Nevada (5 electoral votes), once a McCain state, has seen Obama’s consistent lead waver in magnitude over the last few polls, bouncing from 4 points (Rasmussen) up to 7 points (Reno Gazette-Journal) and back down to 2 points (InAdv/PollPosition). The state is certainly still in play.

New Mexico (5 electoral votes), where McCain had hoped to benefit from his popularity in neighboring Arizona and his hard-line talk on illegal immigration, still has Obama ahead by 5% each in recent Rasmussen and Albuquerque Journal polls.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) is the most hotly contested state, with the Charlotte area polling heavily for Obama and the rest of the state leaning towards McCain. Unlike Obama’s native Illinois, where Chicago’s high Democratic numbers among blue collar workers and African Americans regularly overrule the rest of the state’s steady Republican base, Charlotte is not large enough (yet) to do the same in North Carolina. The polls there have been all over the place this week. The Democratic-leaning PPP put Obama at 50% over McCain’s 44%. CNN/Time called the state at tie at 49% each. SurveyUSA put McCain at 49% and Obama at 46%. The Republican-leaning Civitas/TelOpinion polled Obama at 48% and McCain at 43%. Rasmussen puts Obama at 49% over McCain’s 48%. The state is an important prize for the McCain campaign, so look for a lot of campainging there in the coming weeks, with plenty of appeals to the Southern conservative base by Sarah Palin.

Virginia (13 electoral votes) has traditionally been a GOP state and is one where McCain still has some chance of success, albeit the current polls by Suffolk (12%), SurveyUSA (10%), Fox News/Rasmussen (2%), and the Democratic-leaning PPP (8%) all put Obama fairly comfortably in the lead, if less so since the last presidential debate.

The McCain campaign will also need to keep an eye on states where McCain only leads by an average of 6% or less in the polls. Currently the only state in that category is West Virginia (5 electoral votes).


At What Time and On What Channel is the Presidential Debate on Oct. 7?

5 October 2008

In case you were wondering about when the next presidential debate is taking place and on what television channels it is showing:

The October 7th presidential debate between Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain on the Belmont University campus in Nashville, Tennessee, is scheduled to take place at 8 pm Central Time (9 pm Eastern Time, 7 pm Mountain Time, 6 pm Pacific Time). It will be held in a “town hall” format and will last 90 minutes. The debate will be aired on television channels ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, PBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and BBC America.


So Whose Economic Policy Will Save America?

4 October 2008

George Worries About Becoming Obsolete

Let’s ask the economists.

Scott Adams, the creator of the Dilbert cartoon, did. His thorough report is here. It basically says that economists who are Republicans favor John McCain’s policies, that economists who are Democrats favor Barack Obama’s policies, and that economists who call themselves independent favor Barack Obama’s policies, generally speaking. So no surprises there.

The Economist, a free market-leaning British magazine of the highest international repute, has a thorough and no-nonsense analysis of the two candidates’ economic plans in its latest edition. Now, The Economist has also interviewed all the members of the National Bureau of Economic Research (N.B.E.R.), which includes all the top economists in the U.S.

142 of them responded, with somewhat shocking results (at least for those of us who think in the University of Chicago/free market vein). The full data is available here.

First off, 46% of the top economists identified themselves as Democrats, 44% identified themselves as independent, and only 10% identified themselves as Republican. This does not mean that economists are mostly liberal: The Republican party has not been fiscally conservative for a while now, and so hardcore free marketeers would identify themselves as independent. Nevertheless, the high identification with the Democratic Party certainly is surprising.

Asked to grade the two candidates’ economic plans on a scale of 1 through 5, the economists gave John McCain’s plan a 2.1 (i.e., a D) and Barack Obama’s plan a 3.3 (i.e. a C). This isn’t sufficient from either, given the gravity of the current economic situation.

The economists further thought that addressing the housing and financial crisis was the most important thing a future president must do, and rated Obama’s plan at 3.1 and McCain’s plan at 2.0. The next important step the economists agreed on was to promote fiscal discipline, with Obama’s plan at 3.0 and McCain’s plan at 2.0. The scores were virtually the same for priorities three and four: boosting long-term economic growth (Obama 3.2, McCain 2.5) and reforming financial regulation (Obama 3.3, McCain 2.0).

The economists were then asked to rate the candidates’ tax plans according to efficiency, equity, simplicity, and to give the tax plans an overall rating. John McCain’s tax plan received a 2.8 rating over Obama’s 2.7 on the efficiency count, but Obama’s plan topped McCain’s 3.8 to 1.7 on equity, 2.6 to 2.3 on simplicity, and 3.2 to 2.2 overall.

Perhaps most strikingly, 80.7% of the economists thought Obama would pick a better economic team (to McCain’s 13.6%) and 80.1% of the economists thought Obama had a better grasp of economic policy (to McCain’s 7.8%). Moreover, the economists rated the importance of this election for future economic policy at 4.15 out of 5 — i.e. crucial.

Let’s hope some more surveys come out so we can put this one in context, but it’s certainly an occasion for conservatives with independent minds to stop and think.

The John McCain campaign explains his economic platform here.

The Barack Obama campaign explains his economic platform here.


Presidential Poll Quickie: Sep. 28, 2008

28 September 2008

I have an irrational love of numbers. The only numbers people interested in politics get to obsess over without reservations are polls. So here’s a brief summary of the latest national presidential election polls and polls in states that John McCain and Barack Obama appear to think are in play.

Recent national polls appear to more clearly favor Barack Obama over John McCain that has previously been the case. A Gallup poll has Obama ahead at 50% to McCain’s 42%, a Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama ahead at 50% to McCain’s 44%, and a Hotline/FD poll has Obama ahead at 47% to McCain’s 42%.

Current electoral vote totals put Barack Obama at 286 electoral votes and John McCain at 252 electoral votes, a gain by Obama of 13 electoral votes over last week.

In Florida, John McCain continues to hold on to the slightest of leads over Barack Obama, at 48% to Obama’s 47%.

Iowa appears to have gone from a battle ground state to solidly for Barack Obama, with all more recent polls putting Obama ahead of McCain in that state, and the most current Iowa poll putting Obama at 51% to McCain’s 43%.

Michigan no longer appears to be a battle ground state. The newest poll there puts Barack Obama 13% ahead of John McCain, at 51% to 38%.

Missouri appears to edging towards a toss-up, with John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama there melting to 48% to 46% in one poll and to 47% to 46% in another poll.

In hotly contested Nevada, John McCain holds on to a slim lead of 46% over Barack Obama’s 45% in the most recent poll.

After John McCain pulled ahead in New Hampshire earlier in the week by two points, four successive polls have shown Obama in the lead, with the most recent one putting Obama at 48% and McCain at 44%.

In the usually solidly Republican North Carolina, Barack Obama now leads John McCain at 49% to 47%, according to the latest poll, following two polls that had tied the two candidates at 45% each and at 46% each.

John McCain seems to be currently ahead in Ohio, which has been back and forth frequently. A poll earlier last week had reduced Obama’s lead to a tie at 46% to 46%, and the newest poll gives McCain a slight lead at 47% to Obama’s 46%. Unless something drastic happens, Ohio will, as usual, add suspense to the presidential election until election night and make its 20 electoral votes a deciding factor.

Barack Obama continues to hold on to his lead in Pennsylvania, with 47% to John McCain’s 43% in the most current poll and 49% to 45% in one the day before.

Virginia, which has voted Republican since the end of the Dixiecrats, now appears to have tilted in Obama’s favor at 50% over McCain’s 45%. The polls in Virginia have been going back and forth frequently, so nothing is settled yet — it looks like this state might be one of the ones to watch election night. Virginia has 13 electoral votes.

After only showing a one-point lead in the Big Ten Battleground poll two weeks ago in Wisconsin, Barack Obama is now once again clearly in the lead in that state, at 49% to John McCain’s 43%.


When And On What Channel is the Presidential Debate?

26 September 2008

In case you were wondering about when tonight’s presidential debate is taking place and on what television channels it is showing:

Tonight’s presidential debate between Democratic candidate Barack Obama and Republican candidate John McCain on the Ole Miss campus in Oxford, Miss. is scheduled to take place at 8 pm Central Time (9 pm Eastern Time, 7 pm Mountain Time, 6 pm Pacific Time). The debate will be aired on television channels ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, PBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and BBC America.

Apparently, tonight’s presidential debate will take place whether or not John McCain decides to show up.

According to the National Review’s Rich Lowry, the Ole Miss community is seriously peeved with McCain’s attempt to postpone. A presidential debate event is costly for the university and takes a great deal of planning. Look for the crowd to be more hostile than usual towards McCain.


In Preparation for Tonight’s Debate: Two Fact Checks

26 September 2008

Since these questions might come up in tonight’s debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, this just in from the Fact Checker over at the Washington Post. As the scouts say, “Be prepared!”

In its attempts to rebut charges by The New York Times that campaign manager Rick Davis was until recently involved in business with (and receiving money from) Freddie Mac, the McCain campaign has been ducking the question by making false allegations against the New York Times. This is called “working the refs” (or “blaming the messenger”), where a contender attacks the media source that publishes true but embarrassing information in order to discredit the information. Rick Davis’ association with Freddie Mac is factual and gives the lie to McCain’s claim that he is aggressively going after those who caused the recent economic crisis. Read the full debunking here. Watch for McCain repeating tonight that he is going after Wall Street bigwigs and/or defending Rick Davis against “unfair attacks” that are actually true.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama’s running mate Joe Biden has run into some major trouble explaining his statement at a recent Pennsylvania rally that McCain’s tax plans will represent a tax increase by more than a trillion dollars for middle class voters. In fact, McCain’s proposal includes a full overhaul of the tax and insurance system that includes tax credits and lower insurance costs. Biden’s numbers come only from the cost of the insurance plan as established by the estimates of the Office of the Management and Budget. However, according to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, Biden omits that if seen in context of all the reforms, middle class tax payers will at least break even under McCain’s proposal. Read the full debunking with a video clip of the speech by Biden here. Watch for Barack Obama claiming tonight that John McCain wants to raise taxes on middle class voters by exorbitant amounts.

Does anyone have similar things to add? (Please document your claims from objective sources. Thanks.)


Preachers and the IRS — A Question of Free Speech?

22 September 2008

Over at Ocular Fusion, Mike discusses the newest move by the Alliance Defense Fund to encourage preachers to concertedly break the law on Sep. 28th.

According to the Washington Post, the ADF has decided that it’s time to challenge rules by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that grant churches and preachers tax exempt status in return for keeping certain rules, such as not endorsing a political candidate from the pulpit.

Under a 1954 law, the IRS can revoke the tax-exempt status of religious and charitable groups known as 501(c)(3) organizations if they “participate in, or intervene in . . . any political campaign on behalf of (or in opposition to) any candidate for public office.”

The idea of the early Civil Rights era law was to prevent churches and charities to act as fundraising and campaigning groups for pols who wanted to funnel funds through churches and charities rather than proper channels. It was also intended to prevent them from using churches, charities, science organizations, sports clubs, etc. — all of whom fall under the 501(c)(3) exemption — to organize their political base.

That is not to say that preachers have to be silent on all things political. These tax-exempt organizations may advocate any issues they want and agitate against any topic they choose — abortion, gay rights, gun control, poverty, civil rights, the death penalty. They can support or oppose laws being debated in Congress. They just can’t endorse or oppose specific candidates or parties, whether on the local or the national level.

As most church-goers know, pastors frequently break this law — either blatantly, or by qualifying that they are “speaking for themselves only,” or by speaking euphemistically about one candidate or another (such as the mocking reference to Barack Obama as “The One” currently popular in evangelical circles who have convinced himself that Obama is some version of the Antichrist, or winking references to war heroes who’d bomb Iran in some of the more left-leaning denominations).

In accordance with its very clear instructions to churches, the IRS has, in the past and recently, gone after such pastors, whichever candidate they might endorse, and has revoked their tax exemption.

The ADF now wants to encourage preachers to break the law any way they choose to provoke the IRS into action once more, giving the ADF an opportunity to challenge the law in court — on free speech grounds.

“For so long, there has been this cloud of intimidation over the church,” ADF attorney Erik Stanley told The Washington Post. “It is the job of the pastors of America to debate the proper role of church in society. It’s not for the government to mandate the role of church in society.”

Other religious groups told the Washington Post that they think it’s more a matter of keeping politics out of religion so that the government does not interfere with churches who disagree with it, and are preparing to sue the ADF and in return revoke its tax-exempt status.

Why should this concern us?

Well, for one, it really does matter which organizations candidates can use for their campaigning and what sort of organizations parties can make their own. Whatever talk there is about ministers just exercising their right to free speech, most ministers may be thoughtful people, but let’s face it — they take their political talking points from news outlets, election ads, and party-related propaganda. It is the parties that form what the ministers say, not the ministers who influence what the parties say. It’s a short step from allowing ministers to endorse candidates from the pulpit to party representatives setting the topic agenda at the church and turning the preacher into just one more election ad outlet. Add fundraising to that, and you create a gigantic loophole in the already corrupt campaign financing system. Taxpayers should not have to subsidize party parrots with tax exemptions or allow candidates to hijack houses of worship.

Secondly, critics of the law have a very myopic view of what it takes call yourself a preacher in this country and start something you call a church and then claim tax exempt status. The criteria are extremely loose. In fact, anyone at all can become ordained. Trust me. I am. And I’m ordained by a recognized Christian denomination — not by internet through some spiritual hoax group. It would simply be too easy for political candidates to call themselves Reverend Something (we shall not name any real-life examples on this blog, as they are obvious on both sides of the aisle), rent a building with a sign in front of it that reads “Church,” and go tax exempt rather than abide by the laws that govern political fundraising and advertising. Any real ministers would have to live with an even larger army of imposters on the good standing and trust that is so crucial to their vocation. Accountability matters — and it’s accountability to a higher power than political power.

The ADF is misguided on this issue. The 501(c)(3) laws are not there to constrain religious leaders in their exercise of free speech; they are there to protect their status as respectable members of public discourse by keeping them from being hijacked by sleazy pols. And if a minister wants to advocate for or against a candidate, he can still do so, as a private citizen. Not from the pulpit. From there, we want to hear about Jesus.


Sunday Worthy Reads (Sep. 21, 2008)

21 September 2008

Here are some newspaper and magazine articles that I found insightful about topics I may not have time to blog about, but that are definitely worth reading:

U.S. Politics

- Madison Gray at Time about whether the housing market is about to receive another jolt in the low-income sector

International Politics

- Omar Waraich at Time about whether the Pakistani government can afford to sustain its tenuous support of the U.S. “war on terror” after the Marriott bombings

- Christina Lamb at The Times of London about how the U.S. military effort in Waziristan compares to those the British attempted to use to pacify the area during the last years of the British Empire

- Daryl Lindsey at Der Spiegel International about German press reactions to the new likely Israeli prime minister-to-be, Tzipi Livni and how she might change the Mideast peace process

- Gerald Traufetter at Der Spiegel International about the battle for the natural resources at the North Pole

- Fred Weir at The Christian Science Monitor about how Moscow’s new foreign policy is being shaped by the rabidly nationalist intellectual Alexander Dugin’s thought

- Jean-Arnault Dérens at Le Monde Diplomatique International about the problems facing Bosnian authorities now that Islamic radicals who arrived in the tiny European nation from other Muslim countries to fight in the 1990s war are active Bosnian citizens

Religious Perspectives

- Yassin Musharbash at Der Spiegel International about the debate among Islam scholars whether the Prophet Muhammad ever even existed (in case Christians were worried they’re the only ones scholars subject to the historical critical method)

Economic Perspectives

- Gerald F. Seib and Sara Murray at The Wall Street Journal about how John McCain’s rhetoric to be a small government candidate is weirdly at odds with his suggestions on how to confront the current economic crisis.

- Peter S. Goodman at the New York Times does a thorough analysis of the $700 billion bail-out plan for Wall Street (by the way, the full text of the bail-out bill is here) and David Stout explains it in simple terms here.

- Daniel Gross at Newsweek portrays treasury secretary Henry Paulson and his efforts to combat the economic crisis

Educational Perspectives

- Anand Gopal at The Christian Science Monitor about how schools for Buddhist monks in Burma help shape a new generation of dissidents there

- Jonathan Mahler at the New York Times about how Auburn University became an attractive school for philosophical talent through the hard work of Kelly Jolley

- Deborah Salomon at the New York Times interviews Charles Murray about why college really isn’t for everybody

Book Reviews

- Christopher Hitchens in The New York Times Book Review about Bernard-Henri Lévy’s Left in Dark Times: A Stand Against the New Barbarism

- Peter Baker in The New York Times Book Review about Asne Seierstad’s The Angel of Grozny: Orphans of a Forgotten War, which serves as a grim reminder of what Russian “humanitarian” interventions actually look like

Feel free to add your own favorite reading from the news.

Note: While some of the publications I cite here are based in non-English speaking countries, all the articles are in English, unless noted otherwise. Please note also that these are traditional news media only. This week’s reading favorties from blogs proper will be posted Tuesday, as I think it’s smart to let bloggers react to the strong journalistc work that becomes public over the weekend.


Presidential Poll Quickie (Sep. 21, 2008)

21 September 2008

I have an irrational love of numbers. The only numbers people interested in politics get to obsess over without reservations are polls. So here’s a brief summary of the latest national polls and polls in states that the candidates appear to think are in play:

A national poll by Rasmussen has Barack Obama at 48% and John McCain at 47%, a Gallup poll has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%, and a Hotline/FD poll has Obama at 45% and McCain at 44%.

Current electoral vote totals appear to put Barack Obama at 273 electoral votes over John McCain’s 265.

A Florida poll by the South Florida Sun Sentinel has John McCain at 46% and Barack Obama at 45%, with Obama’s recent gains putting the pivotal state into play. A Miami Herald poll also puts McCain’s lead of 47% to Obama’s 45% within the statistical margin of error.

An Iowa poll by the Quad City Times shows Barack Obama at 53% and John McCain at 39%. Iowa voted for George W. Bush in the 2004 election and is considered one of the crucial Big Ten battleground states.

A Michigan poll has Barack Obama at 43% and John McCain at 42%, a statistical tie.

A Missouri poll by Research 2000 has John McCain at 49% and Obama at 45%. Missouri, traditionally a Republican state with slight swing tendencies, is considered in play because of highly popular Democrat Claire McCaskill’s success in the senatorial race there in 2006.

A North Carolina poll by Public Policy Polling shows the two candidates as even at 46% each. North Carolina hasn’t been considered as pivotal to win as other states, but it’s been a traditionally Republican state that is newly in play, mostly because Charlotte, NC is a quickly growing metropolitan area that has attracted many young and educated voters from beyond the South, who appear to tend to support Barack Obama.

An Ohio newspaper poll shows John McCain at 48% and Barack Obama at 42%. Ohio is one of those states that usually determine the election. Note: This poll was taken before last week’s Wall Street debacle, which might influence the numbers, one way or the other.

A South Carolina poll by Rasmussen shows John McCain at 51% and Barack Obama at 45%. South Carolina is traditionally a deeply Republican state, with Jimmy Carter being the only Democrat to carry the state since all the Dixiecrats jumped ship in 1960. However, the Obama campaign has had high hopes for the large African American population there.


Hold On A Second, Sister Palin

11 September 2008

That John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate went over well with social conservatives – about that there is no question. In fact, Palin at times seems to have energized that base so much that it’s not always clear whether she is running as a vice presidential candidate or for the presidency itself.

One major factor in that enthusiasm has been Palin’s enormous popularity among religious voters. Palin has declared herself on the right side of many issues religious voters care about: She is pro-life, supports prayer in schools, advocates abstinence-only sex education for teens, opposes gay marriage, and so on.

As her rationale for those positions, Palin often cites her Christian faith. She has suggested that this faith is what leads her to be a person of higher integrity than the average Washington insider and that it makes her someone voters can trust to be honest. And that’s a good thing.

But that claim also means that Palin is accountable for what she says in ways that those who don’t claim a religious influence on their life aren’t. Religious people are big on personal accountability and hate hypocrisy. They care about what’s called “walking the talk.”

As such, Palin needs to dispel some doubts about how truthful she has been with some of her recent stump slogans. They appear to be, well, lies.  And if Palin wants to claim that the Bible guides her moral compass, then she knows the biblical standard is a higher one: You Shall Not Lie – not even a little bit.

Specifically, Palin will need to explain the following claims:

“I told the Congress, ‘Thanks, but no thanks,’ on that Bridge to Nowhere. If our state wanted to build a bridge, we were going to build it ourselves.”

Palin repeats this line in nearly every speech. Yet, Palin is on the record in support of the project until Congress had already effectively killed it. In fact, she told residents of Ketchikan Island, where the bridge would have led, that she didn’t consider their island Nowhere and that critics just didn’t understand how Alaska works, and has angered many of them with her claim that she opposed the project. Palin only put a formal end to the project when she knew the money was not going to come and after the GOP let her know it was hurting their reputation nationally. Contrary to what Palin suggests – that she turned downed the $233 million Congress was prepared to pay for the bridge and sent it back to Washington – Alaska kept the earmark money and spent it on other projects. What is more, as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, Palin secured almost $27 million in Congressional earmarks and as Alaska’s governor requested $160.5 million for 2008 and $198 million for 2009.

Palin’s statement about how she handled federal earmarks at best a half-truth, and her self-portrayal as someone who refuses them is blatantly misleading.

“That luxury jet was over the top. I put it on eBay.”

Palin uses getting rid of the gubernatorial jet as an example for her penchant to cut ridiculous spending. That part is true, and Palin has used the move to suggest to voters that this sort of hard-nosed folksy attitude is what she will bring to all excess spending. What Palin does not mention, however, is that she did not sell the plane on eBay. In fact, it was not Palin, but the speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives who arranged for the sale, and at a $600,000 loss to tax payers.

Some might call that a “white lie,” lying by omission, but being the model mom she is, it probably wouldn’t fly with Palin if one of her teenagers told her that they’d spent the evening hanging out at a friend’s place doing their homework when really they spent five minutes there, then handed the homework to the friend’s younger sister and moved on to a party somewhere else. White lies are still lies. Especially when they’re about something worth $2.1 million.

Drilling in ANWR would have minimal impact, covering only “2,000 out of 20-million acres.”

Alaska has gotten rich off oil drilling, and Palin has repeatedly argued that drilling should be extended to the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve because the drilling would only cover a tiny area. Technically, the numbers she cites are accurate. However, she omits to mention that these 2,000 acres aren’t all in one place, or two, or three. They would be spread out like patchwork all over ANWR and would require many more acres of connecting roads, pipelines, airstrips, and gravel mines. The existing drilling area, which technically takes up 12,000 acres, ends up actually sprawling industrial infrastructure over 640,000 acres. That’s a proportion of 1:53. If the same ratio applies to the new sites, the true extend would be 106,000 acres. That might not seem like much out of 20 million, but then why hide it?

For someone who touts herself as an honest accountant, shrinking the true cost of something 53-fold isn’t exactly acceptable.

In the same vein, Palin should account for her claim that she led the way to energy independence by creating an Alaska oil pipeline stretching more than 1,700 miles from the North Slope of Alaska to the lower 48 states. Palin said, “When that deal was struck, we began a nearly $40 billion natural gas pipeline to help lead America to energy independence.” The trouble is, the project is far from beginning. In fact, the project exists only on paper, oil companies have been backing out, and the pipeline may never be built. Instead, it could end up costing taxpayers $500 million in subsidies for what amounts to a nice idea.

Thinking about doing isn’t the same thing as doing, and to claim having done something when one hasn’t is called lying.

On the same topic, Palin has claimed that “America needs more energy; our opponent is against producing it.” This is also patently false. Whether or not one agrees with him, Obama has said that he does not oppose drilling for more oil, and he has suggested a $150 billion program to develop more clean energy.

“Listening to him speak, it’s easy to forget that [Barack Obama] is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or even a reform, not even in the state Senate.”

Depending on one’s standard for what counts as major, that could be accurate. However, Palin touts her own moves to restore ethics to Alaska politics as a major qualification, and Obama cosponsored an even more extensive ethics reform as an Illinois senator and did so again in Washington. He also worked with GOP senators on important anti-corruption laws and on a law to track and reduce weapons of mass destruction.

Of course, it’s common for candidates to downplay the other side’s accomplishments, and Governor Palin has certainly suffered her share of equally distorting attacks. But a double standard for oneself and others is dishonest nonetheless, and if Palin advertises herself as someone who rises above Washington dishonesty, she needs to actually do so.

“To the families of special-needs children all across this country, I have a message: For years, you sought to make America a more welcoming place for your sons and daughters. I pledge to you that if we are elected, you will have a friend and advocate in the White House.”

Religious people put great stock in caring for the helpless, so Palin’s promise certainly resonates with them. But as governor of Alaska, Palin actually reduced funding for schools that serve children with special needs by 62% in her 2008 and 2009 budgets from her predecessor’s 2007 budget. In those same budgets, Palin cut health care spending by more than $4.5 million and funding for seniors by $600,000.

Since she has also championed states’ rights on education and health care issues, she cannot reverse her record once she is a federal executive without clearly having lied about one of the two issues.

This list goes on, unfortunately, and it’s beginning to scare the social conservatives who would like to trust Palin and support her as one of their own. Saying she is bringing the integrity of her Christian values to her candidacy is admirable. But then turning around and being loose with the truth, hoping her base won’t notice or won’t care, gives it the lie. It’s patronizing and downright contemptuous of the religious vote.

It is time for Sarah Palin to explain her misstatements and to assure anyone who wants to take her by her word that their trust in her is not wasted. Or else, she may cost John McCain the very base he put her on the ticket to win.


Why Russia’s New Foreign Policy Is A Real Threat

10 September 2008

Russia is back.

Not twenty years after the rest of the world breathed a sigh of relief at the collapse of the totalitarian Soviet Empire and at the end of the Russian dictatorship of world affairs, Russian tanks once again rolled into free countries on Russia’s borders, Russian soldiers once more are formally being accused of ethnically cleansing the villages of those who dare resist them, and Russian diplomats once again blame it all not on their own belligerence, but on the old propaganda staple, American Imperialism – that is, the threat of a reign of freedom and democracy on their borders, much like the East Germans tried in 1953, the Hungarians tried in 1956, and the Czechs tried in 1968, just to equally be crushed by soldiers and tanks for failing to see that Moscow knows best.

It all seems so familiar that it’s almost refreshing. What is less refreshing is the reaction from the two presidential candidates.

Of course, Barack Obama and John McCain both condemned the Russian attack on Georgia. McCain warned Americans that Russia was entering a new, aggressive phase in its foreign policy. He said the West should “have no doubt about Russian ambitions in this area,” and that the Russians wanted “to send a signal to any country that chooses to associate with the West” to think twice about doing so. The West, he said, must react. Obama went even further and declared, “Now is the time for action – not just words.”

But both candidates have been remarkably vague about just what those reactions should be. The most forceful ones that either one seems to have been able to come up with so far has been the largely symbolic dismissal of Russia from the G8 and the naïvely patronizing gesture of sending aid packages to the defeated ally, Georgian. That is hardly enough from the future leader of the Free World.

This failure of leadership suggests that neither of has understood the gravity Russia’s actions, which Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army War College described as a combination of “drunken Russian soldiers looting the population, false claims about Georgian genocide and war crimes that may yet be counterbalanced by truer accounts of bad Russian behavior – beyond that, Russia is threatening everyone in sight to show that it is a great power even if they send humanitarian aid to Georgia. In other words, the Russian line is one of mendacity, provocation, aggression, belligerence, and undisciplined raiding.”

What we saw in Georgia is not the first gambit in a new round of geopolitical chess the Russians intend to play with the West. Those came earlier, when the Russians cut off the natural gas supply to the Western-oriented Ukraine and launched a concerted cyber-attack against Estonia, a member of both NATO and the EU. The move in Georgia is just the first one the West really noticed, because tanks rolled.

The Russian government insists that its military just happened to be hanging around the border with peace on its mind when the Georgians suddenly attacked hapless South Ossetian separatists. The Russians didn’t plan to crush the Georgians with such an impressive use of force, they say. Their army really just is that good and that quick.

This is a lie, and it’s part of the game the Russians are playing.

Far from being spontaneous, the Russian invasion had long been planned. Russian officials issued Russian passports to South Ossetians well in advance so that they could claim to be rushing to the defense of their own citizens when the Georgian forces entered the breakaway region. Russia had steadily increased its troops on the border to Georgia for months before the conflict, Russian anti-aircraft missiles had shot down unmanned Georgian drones over Georgian territory, and Russian military jets had repeatedly violated Georgian airspace – all actions intended to eventually provoke a reaction from Georgia. The Georgian defeat, too, was a foregone conclusion. Russia had intended all along to humiliate a U.S. ally and show everyone that nothing would stop a Russian invasion.

Russian president Dmitri Medvedev announced soon afterwards that all countries on its borders from now on were to consider themselves in the Russian sphere of influence – including European Union members Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The same applied, so Medvedev, to Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which Europe had turned to in order to alleviate its oil and gas dependency on an increasingly sinister Russia. A week later, Medvedev’s bluster at the presence of U.S. warships in the Black Sea that were delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia further suggested that Russia now considers the entire Black Sea region its thralldom, including the pro-Western Ukraine with its strategic ports.

In fact, the next Russian moves are already laid out in plain sight, and the Ukraine is indeed their target. The Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, who survived a poisoning attempt that many ascribe to Russian agents, recently refused to extend the Soviet-era lease of the Crimean port of Sevastopol to the Russian Black Sea fleet after the lease expires in 2017. In response, Russian politicians questioned the integrity of the Ukraine’s borders, and the vocal Russian minority in Sevastopol staged demonstrations demanding the Crimea’s independence. How long before those demonstrations turn into calculated riots? How long until the Russian government claims that Ukrainian police are no longer restoring order, but harming Russian citizens? How long before Russia sends its troops to occupy the Crimea in response to another crisis Russia provoked?

Something very similar is already going on along the Ukraine’s western border, in the Transdnerstr region of neighboring Moldova. There, the Kremlin has stoked a pro-Russian separatist movement for years. Much like the South Ossetians, those separatists have declared they want to be part of Russia – except that they share no borders with it. How long until Russian “peace keepers” arrive there as well, forming a wedge between Moldova and the Ukraine, and coming ominously close to the Ukrainian port of Odessa?

And there is still more. A European-backed oil pipeline that was just recently modernized ends in the Georgian port of Supsa, just 15 miles from where Russian soldiers still occupy the port of Poti. The country where most of that oil comes from, Kazakhstan, has a Russian minority that makes up nearly a third of its population. How long until the Kremlin arranges a repeat of Georgia there?

Russian president Medvedev and Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin have made clear how deeply many Russian leaders still resent their country’s realistic place in world affairs – the place of a distinctly secondary power. Putin has famously called this decline “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century;” those millions who after 1989 finally breathed free from Russian jingoism and oppression might disagree. In order to make up for that resentment, Russia’s current government seems resolved to pretend at its former dark might by killing and by stealing from its smaller neighbors and by then loudly demanding respect from the rest of the world that Russia has made no effort to earn.

It is the responsibility of the presidential candidates to make clear now to the Russian government that any future U.S. administration will take concrete and serious actions against a Russia that gambles with the security of entire continents in a misled search for a dead imperial nightmare buried somewhere in the dregs of its largely derelict and rotting army, its current farce of a democracy, and its apparent determination to wear out its welcome in an international community that in the 21st century expects more civilized behavior from a country that wants to be taken seriously.

Moreover, instead of remaining vague, the candidates should not only promise to step up efforts to integrate the Ukraine into NATO as the current administration has started to do, but should also start calling Russia’s bluffs by using Russia’s own logic. If Russia is going to demand the independence of every disgruntled minority in the Caucasus, it will have to do the same with its own minorities yearning to be free – in Chechnya, in Dagestan, in Tatarstan, along the Volga, and in the Siberian provinces.

As to spheres of influence wherever Russia has an adjoining border and anywhere the Russian empire once stretched – it is to be doubted that the Russians would want Germany to suddenly reclaim the Königsberg exclave in the Baltic, which is now safely tucked far into EU territory and nowhere borders on Russia; or that it would accept Japanese claims over the Kuril Islands because those were once part of the Japanese Empire; or that it would do anything but throw a fit if its recently planted flag were uprooted from the seabed at the North Pole when the international commission working on the question confirms that the Pole is indeed part of Greenland and not Russia.

And in any case, even in what it calls its “near abroad” the Russian sphere of influence is a still a myth the Free World can dispel: Last week, a council of former Soviet republics refused to follow Russia’s lead and voted not to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Those countries still trust 21st century values of freedom and democracy more than they fear the 19th century Russian yawp.

Let’s hear from our presidential candidates how they will keep it that way.


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