Presidential Poll Quickie: Sep. 28, 2008

I have an irrational love of numbers. The only numbers people interested in politics get to obsess over without reservations are polls. So here’s a brief summary of the latest national presidential election polls and polls in states that John McCain and Barack Obama appear to think are in play.

Recent national polls appear to more clearly favor Barack Obama over John McCain that has previously been the case. A Gallup poll has Obama ahead at 50% to McCain’s 42%, a Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama ahead at 50% to McCain’s 44%, and a Hotline/FD poll has Obama ahead at 47% to McCain’s 42%.

Current electoral vote totals put Barack Obama at 286 electoral votes and John McCain at 252 electoral votes, a gain by Obama of 13 electoral votes over last week.

In Florida, John McCain continues to hold on to the slightest of leads over Barack Obama, at 48% to Obama’s 47%.

Iowa appears to have gone from a battle ground state to solidly for Barack Obama, with all more recent polls putting Obama ahead of McCain in that state, and the most current Iowa poll putting Obama at 51% to McCain’s 43%.

Michigan no longer appears to be a battle ground state. The newest poll there puts Barack Obama 13% ahead of John McCain, at 51% to 38%.

Missouri appears to edging towards a toss-up, with John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama there melting to 48% to 46% in one poll and to 47% to 46% in another poll.

In hotly contested Nevada, John McCain holds on to a slim lead of 46% over Barack Obama’s 45% in the most recent poll.

After John McCain pulled ahead in New Hampshire earlier in the week by two points, four successive polls have shown Obama in the lead, with the most recent one putting Obama at 48% and McCain at 44%.

In the usually solidly Republican North Carolina, Barack Obama now leads John McCain at 49% to 47%, according to the latest poll, following two polls that had tied the two candidates at 45% each and at 46% each.

John McCain seems to be currently ahead in Ohio, which has been back and forth frequently. A poll earlier last week had reduced Obama’s lead to a tie at 46% to 46%, and the newest poll gives McCain a slight lead at 47% to Obama’s 46%. Unless something drastic happens, Ohio will, as usual, add suspense to the presidential election until election night and make its 20 electoral votes a deciding factor.

Barack Obama continues to hold on to his lead in Pennsylvania, with 47% to John McCain’s 43% in the most current poll and 49% to 45% in one the day before.

Virginia, which has voted Republican since the end of the Dixiecrats, now appears to have tilted in Obama’s favor at 50% over McCain’s 45%. The polls in Virginia have been going back and forth frequently, so nothing is settled yet — it looks like this state might be one of the ones to watch election night. Virginia has 13 electoral votes.

After only showing a one-point lead in the Big Ten Battleground poll two weeks ago in Wisconsin, Barack Obama is now once again clearly in the lead in that state, at 49% to John McCain’s 43%.

Presidential Poll Quickie (Sep. 21, 2008)

I have an irrational love of numbers. The only numbers people interested in politics get to obsess over without reservations are polls. So here’s a brief summary of the latest national polls and polls in states that the candidates appear to think are in play:

A national poll by Rasmussen has Barack Obama at 48% and John McCain at 47%, a Gallup poll has Obama at 50% and McCain at 44%, and a Hotline/FD poll has Obama at 45% and McCain at 44%.

Current electoral vote totals appear to put Barack Obama at 273 electoral votes over John McCain’s 265.

A Florida poll by the South Florida Sun Sentinel has John McCain at 46% and Barack Obama at 45%, with Obama’s recent gains putting the pivotal state into play. A Miami Herald poll also puts McCain’s lead of 47% to Obama’s 45% within the statistical margin of error.

An Iowa poll by the Quad City Times shows Barack Obama at 53% and John McCain at 39%. Iowa voted for George W. Bush in the 2004 election and is considered one of the crucial Big Ten battleground states.

A Michigan poll has Barack Obama at 43% and John McCain at 42%, a statistical tie.

A Missouri poll by Research 2000 has John McCain at 49% and Obama at 45%. Missouri, traditionally a Republican state with slight swing tendencies, is considered in play because of highly popular Democrat Claire McCaskill’s success in the senatorial race there in 2006.

A North Carolina poll by Public Policy Polling shows the two candidates as even at 46% each. North Carolina hasn’t been considered as pivotal to win as other states, but it’s been a traditionally Republican state that is newly in play, mostly because Charlotte, NC is a quickly growing metropolitan area that has attracted many young and educated voters from beyond the South, who appear to tend to support Barack Obama.

An Ohio newspaper poll shows John McCain at 48% and Barack Obama at 42%. Ohio is one of those states that usually determine the election. Note: This poll was taken before last week’s Wall Street debacle, which might influence the numbers, one way or the other.

A South Carolina poll by Rasmussen shows John McCain at 51% and Barack Obama at 45%. South Carolina is traditionally a deeply Republican state, with Jimmy Carter being the only Democrat to carry the state since all the Dixiecrats jumped ship in 1960. However, the Obama campaign has had high hopes for the large African American population there.